Reconfiguring Regional Order in the Middle East through the Return of Trump and the Decline of American Multilateralism

Abstract

This article analyzes the transformation of American foreign policy in the Middle East following the re-election of Donald Trump in 2024, with particular focus on the decline of multilateral norms, the resurgence of unilateralism, and the reconfiguration of hegemonic structures in the region. Through a critical realist and post-hegemonic lens, this study interrogates how Trump’s strategic preferences reshape power relations and generate institutional erosion in key areas such as nuclear diplomacy, Israeli–Iranian rivalry, the marginalization of Palestine, and the shifting architecture of energy and technological dependency. By examining these processes through structural mapping and scenario analysis, the paper reveals how transactional alliances and asymmetrical coercion are replacing liberal internationalist frameworks as the main instruments of U.S. engagement. The research identifies three overlapping developments: the fragmentation of regional alignments, the intensification of geopolitical contestation through China and Russia, and the weakening of institutional platforms for conflict mediation. Empirical evidence from alliance behavior, economic infrastructure, and discursive legitimation demonstrates how regional actors are simultaneously recalibrating their autonomy and reproducing new dependencies. This study contributes to broader debates on hegemonic transition, multipolar instability, and normative contestation in international order. It argues that rather than restoring a coherent regional equilibrium, Trump’s policies accelerate a transition toward modular, fragmented, and strategically ambiguous configurations of power. In this context, the Middle East emerges not as a passive site of superpower rivalry, but as an active laboratory for pluralistic experiments in sovereignty, resistance, and regional reordering. The paper concludes by offering conceptual tools for understanding emergent patterns of order in the absence of a stable hegemon.